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VISTORBELITUNG.COM,WASHINGTON D.C. ,President Donald Trump’s intensified rhetoric and proposed policies targeting the H-1B visa program are widely expected to accelerate a significant trend: the shift of critical technology and operations work from US firms to global capability centers (GCCs) in India, according to economists and industry insiders.
GCCs, which handle everything from finance and human resources to complex research and development (R&D) for multinational corporations, are already a major engine of growth in India. Analysts suggest that a new wave of visa restrictions under a potential second Trump administration would provide an immediate and powerful incentive for US companies to scale up these offshore hubs rapidly.
The H-1B visa is the primary channel US companies use to hire highly skilled foreign workers, particularly in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. Trump’s stated intention to impose stricter limits, higher fees, and even potential bans on certain categories of the visa is being interpreted by the industry as a serious supply-chain disruption for talent.
"If the US makes it more difficult and unpredictable to bring in the necessary high-skill talent especially in high-demand areas like AI and data science companies have no choice but to move the work to where the talent is readily available," said a senior economist specializing in global labor markets. "India, with its vast, English-speaking talent pool and mature GCC ecosystem, becomes the immediate and most logical answer."
This anticipated crackdown would not just affect routine IT tasks; experts believe it will specifically target critical and strategic work.
Historically, GCCs started by handling back-office support. Today, they have evolved into centers of excellence that drive innovation and R&D. For instance, major US banks now run their global cybersecurity operations from Indian GCCs, and pharmaceutical giants conduct clinical trial analysis there.
"The H-1B pressure will act like a catalyst," noted an executive at a major Indian IT consulting firm. "US firms will no longer only ask, 'Can this work be done remotely?' They will ask, 'Can we build an entire R&D function or a global finance hub in India to de-risk our entire operations from unpredictable US immigration policy?' The answer for many will be yes."
This shift is predicted to turbocharge the growth of India’s existing GCC infrastructure, leading to a massive increase in high-value job creation and cementing the country's status as the world’s foremost hub for complex digital and corporate services.
While the Trump campaign argues that H-1B restrictions protect American jobs, industry insiders assert that these policies inadvertently push high-value, critical work and the decision-making authority that goes with it out of the United States entirely, benefitting India's economy instead.